Table 12.  Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the January 1998
FAPRI Baseline on the Economic Viability of Representative Farms
Primarily Producing Beef Cattle
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                                      MTB400    WYB300    COB300
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Annual % Change in Real Net Worth (%)
1997-2002 Average                       3.08      2.50      1.74

Net Income Adjustment (NIA)
1997-2002 ($1,000)                    -61.74    -14.73    -42.87

Net Income Adjustment (NIA)
1997-2002 (% Receipt                  -39.06    -11.46    -26.88

Cost to Receipts Ratio (%)
1997-2002 Average                      58.08     78.76     70.91

Total Cash Receipts ($1000)
               1997                   142.13    116.16    153.55
               1998                   146.96    119.82    161.52
               1999                   165.40    134.05    176.67
               2000                   172.63    139.71    184.93
               2001                   164.91    134.05    179.25
               2002                   156.23    127.69    173.00
1997-2002 Average                     158.05    128.58    171.49

Net Cash Farm Income ($1000)
               1997                    49.64     22.43     35.03
               1998                    59.36     21.64     44.24
               1999                    77.01     35.73     57.94
               2000                    86.00     40.07     60.54
               2001                    74.15     31.35     57.81
               2002                    65.69     25.51     52.20
1997-2002 Average                      68.64     29.46     51.29

Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%)
               1997                       15        76        26
               1998                        9        57        13
               1999                        1        42         3
               2000                        0        43        12
               2001                        6        50         9
               2002                        8        65        18

Ending Cash Reserves ($1,000)
               1997                    22.27     -9.86     10.81
               1998                    50.38     -6.04     26.82
               1999                    88.34      8.64     53.02
               2000                   134.53     15.72     74.02
               2001                   165.94     18.46     93.47
               2002                   195.08     11.35    105.63
1997-2002 Average                     109.42      6.38     60.63

Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%)
               1997                        8        75        16
               1998                        3        54         8
               1999                        0        35         1
               2000                        0        26         0
               2001                        0        27         0
               2002                        0        38         0

Nominal Net Worth ($1000)
               1997                  1692.36    625.85   2887.10
               1998                  1796.87    655.15   3025.83
               1999                  1941.19    713.91   3219.53
               2000                  2045.01    751.27   3343.02
               2001                  2105.64    756.98   3417.60
               2002                  2140.20    749.83   3455.57
1997-2002 Average                    1953.55    708.83   3224.78

Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%)
               1997                        1        14         0
               1998                        0        10         0
               1999                        0         4         0
               2000                        0         1         0
               2001                        0         4         0
               2002                        0         6         0
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