Table 4. Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the January 1998 FAPRI Baseline on the Economic
Viability of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Feed Grains
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IAG950 IAG2200 NEG800 NEG1575 MOCG1500 MOCG3000 MONG1200
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Annual % Change in Real Net Worth (%)
1997-2002 Average 4.03 5.92 0.40 2.61 5.38 5.73 1.49
Net Income Adjustment (NIA)
1997-2002 ($1,000) -53.45 -119.40 -4.44 -73.95 -119.24 -290.73 -22.34
Net Income Adjustment (NIA)
1997-2002 (% Receipt -17.61 -21.86 -1.16 -9.86 -32.09 -35.48 -4.88
Cost to Receipts Ratio (%)
1997-2002 Average 67.37 61.88 88.65 80.51 53.67 52.82 81.96
Govt Payments/Receipts (%)
1997-2002 Average 7.36 8.92 9.17 9.67 5.75 5.86 2.95
Total Cash Receipts ($1000)
1997 305.16 549.48 370.45 756.83 359.11 836.91 475.32
1998 294.46 532.73 370.46 751.15 364.09 792.32 429.84
1999 295.86 534.43 378.42 757.71 374.31 795.85 453.94
2000 305.00 549.46 392.63 775.43 386.75 817.07 471.01
2001 308.80 553.92 392.87 782.09 394.25 825.34 461.81
2002 312.28 557.95 395.88 797.63 410.86 849.67 453.09
1997-2002 Average 303.59 546.33 383.45 770.14 381.56 819.53 457.50
Net Cash Farm Income ($1000)
1997 112.22 227.29 61.25 172.79 165.88 417.87 112.54
1998 104.35 217.03 59.32 164.88 171.98 385.74 74.34
1999 106.92 219.29 59.46 169.81 182.83 395.05 96.67
2000 114.41 233.35 69.75 186.89 195.80 413.45 108.91
2001 115.86 237.18 63.75 185.47 198.81 416.25 97.34
2002 119.52 239.71 61.16 197.06 209.61 436.71 82.07
1997-2002 Average 112.21 228.98 62.45 179.48 187.49 410.85 95.31
Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%)
1997 44 32 77 51 26 15 56
1998 50 28 84 57 31 21 80
1999 40 30 86 69 14 5 64
2000 33 25 86 63 25 17 64
2001 38 26 83 64 18 18 74
2002 45 27 87 56 22 15 80
Ending Cash Reserves ($1,000)
1997 68.26 148.17 -22.55 58.93 121.92 327.47 30.80
1998 81.52 199.18 -43.41 55.12 168.51 448.48 5.86
1999 101.90 256.31 -74.89 46.75 236.20 601.28 9.25
2000 130.17 324.26 -92.74 60.71 303.77 753.26 10.31
2001 159.48 400.66 -119.52 68.16 381.22 906.00 -2.54
2002 178.37 470.82 -142.02 91.54 455.69 1069.80 -28.51
1997-2002 Average 119.95 299.90 -82.52 63.53 277.89 684.38 4.20
Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%)
1997 21 13 60 29 3 2 31
1998 19 6 67 37 5 0 43
1999 17 6 67 42 2 0 44
2000 11 5 72 36 0 0 45
2001 12 4 75 36 0 0 51
2002 13 4 79 32 0 0 54
Nominal Net Worth ($1000)
1997 1026.32 1293.39 1086.90 2347.77 1543.41 3027.23 1381.66
1998 1099.67 1414.93 1125.69 2482.38 1678.51 3308.13 1415.59
1999 1182.39 1533.32 1170.27 2636.22 1829.27 3611.35 1505.78
2000 1262.34 1669.54 1202.80 2758.44 1964.54 3879.15 1570.62
2001 1331.36 1788.92 1218.69 2874.60 2104.76 4136.15 1614.53
2002 1386.91 1897.73 1232.49 2970.31 2226.96 4382.48 1624.29
1997-2002 Average 1214.83 1599.64 1172.81 2678.28 1891.24 3724.08 1518.75
Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%)
1997 12 10 36 22 1 1 14
1998 4 4 31 16 0 0 17
1999 3 2 33 10 0 0 12
2000 3 2 34 7 0 0 12
2001 3 2 35 6 0 0 14
2002 4 2 41 7 0 0 16
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Table 5. Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the January 1998 FAPRI Baseline
on the Economic Viability of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Feed Grains
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TXNP1600 TXNP5500 SCG1500 SCG3500
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Annual % Change in Real Net Worth (%)
1997-2002 Average 5.63 8.18 5.09 8.18
Net Income Adjustment (NIA)
1997-2002 ($1,000) -42.25 -264.89 -64.75 -381.88
Net Income Adjustment (NIA)
1997-2002 (% Receipt -11.98 -20.23 -11.37 -25.00
Cost to Receipts Ratio (%)
1997-2002 Average 70.75 65.87 76.77 63.76
Govt Payments/Receipts (%)
1997-2002 Average 10.38 9.09 6.75 5.56
Total Cash Receipts ($1000)
1997 348.48 1313.07 559.08 1502.18
1998 347.74 1299.45 550.03 1476.68
1999 345.79 1299.31 556.30 1492.82
2000 355.79 1331.88 574.47 1527.53
2001 355.87 1340.44 583.85 1568.46
2002 361.94 1363.64 593.90 1597.37
1997-2002 Average 352.60 1324.63 569.60 1527.51
Net Cash Farm Income ($1000)
1997 106.84 459.21 150.02 561.16
1998 107.67 459.68 141.73 543.23
1999 107.96 470.07 139.35 558.39
2000 116.03 498.34 155.37 591.17
2001 113.82 503.16 158.51 622.73
2002 115.16 512.92 158.93 644.89
1997-2002 Average 111.25 483.90 150.65 586.93
Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%)
1997 27 28 35 15
1998 37 36 36 13
1999 39 21 57 20
2000 36 20 36 17
2001 44 15 40 10
2002 35 25 48 14
Ending Cash Reserves ($1,000)
1997 111.51 378.37 129.83 541.56
1998 141.36 488.10 166.95 746.96
1999 172.33 648.48 183.34 928.32
2000 205.78 819.43 223.17 1149.23
2001 229.19 1016.59 256.83 1384.67
2002 258.47 1198.45 281.44 1636.96
1997-2002 Average 186.44 758.24 206.93 1064.62
Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%)
1997 3 7 12 1
1998 6 6 13 0
1999 4 4 11 0
2000 4 0 10 0
2001 3 0 14 0
2002 4 0 13 0
Nominal Net Worth ($1000)
1997 530.17 2001.97 854.52 2806.51
1998 579.47 2244.74 928.63 3145.25
1999 628.20 2486.20 997.15 3498.43
2000 679.07 2748.00 1074.87 3837.72
2001 726.61 3028.99 1145.11 4201.12
2002 768.26 3279.01 1207.96 4569.71
1997-2002 Average 651.96 2631.49 1034.71 3676.46
Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%)
1997 22 16 20 2
1998 12 3 13 1
1999 10 3 13 0
2000 6 0 8 0
2001 4 0 8 0
2002 6 0 10 0
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