Table 8.  Implications of the 1996 Farm Bill and the January 1998 FAPRI Baseline on the Economic Viability
of Representative Farms Primarily Producing Rice
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                       CAR424   CAR1365   TXR2118   TXR3750   MOR1900   MOR4000   ARR2645   ARR3400   LAR1100
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Annual % Change in Real Net Worth (%)
1997-2002 Average        3.93      3.76      8.10      6.08     -1.76      2.27      6.18      6.60      2.49

Net Income Adjustment (NIA)
1997-2002 ($1,000)     -38.39    -99.12    -68.73   -160.64     35.35   -117.16   -181.15   -307.75     -8.53

Net Income Adjustment (NIA)
1997-2002 (% Receipt   -11.40     -9.12    -14.72    -11.89      5.55     -6.21    -25.14    -31.25     -2.69

Cost to Receipts Ratio (%)
1997-2002 Average       75.54     83.65     70.43     80.32     91.99     83.64     62.72     55.16     79.86

Govt Payments/Receipts (%)
1997-2002 Average       16.99     16.72     18.18     16.37     11.41      9.92      9.94     13.48     12.19

Total Cash Receipts ($1000)
               1997    366.97   1144.21    491.32   1412.36    647.72   1911.44    736.42   1014.15    327.96
               1998    356.70   1110.08    477.90   1375.05    627.52   1865.46    709.71    973.35    316.85
               1999    357.84   1114.27    478.63   1384.94    631.99   1874.15    716.67    979.61    319.12
               2000    354.10   1103.19    472.88   1373.35    636.54   1884.44    724.70    983.29    319.08
               2001    346.69   1081.37    461.59   1341.70    633.74   1880.36    726.46    975.86    317.07
               2002    346.83   1082.11    461.28   1337.88    641.64   1900.91    733.74    982.55    319.14
1997-2002 Average      354.85   1105.87    473.93   1370.88    636.52   1886.13    724.62    984.80    319.87

Net Cash Farm Income ($1000)
               1997    107.43    240.19    153.54    323.41     96.43    387.64    282.12    463.39     86.92
               1998     97.59    207.91    145.88    287.45     69.13    326.45    260.78    428.31     70.67
               1999     95.49    210.69    150.73    305.59     65.18    329.14    268.80    444.32     71.96
               2000     88.71    195.30    146.68    292.66     60.53    335.34    278.86    456.62     62.30
               2001     78.44    164.07    136.56    256.06     43.25    315.75    279.30    444.33     59.67
               2002     75.04    148.52    131.79    234.57     38.03    323.90    283.84    447.60     58.20
1997-2002 Average       90.45    194.45    144.20    283.29     62.09    336.37    275.62    447.43     68.29

Prob. of a Cash Flow Deficit (%)
               1997        30        26        21        23        61        34         3         0        40
               1998        49        34        18        30        77        48         3         0        56
               1999        55        39        21        24        86        53         4         0        70
               2000        52        33        13        27        85        51         3         0        72
               2001        63        36        20        28        94        73         5         1        83
               2002        57        40        17        40        96        67         5         0        91

Ending Cash Reserves ($1,000)
               1997     71.14    203.87    119.95    250.12     24.85    300.06    263.85    383.31     51.35
               1998     87.64    264.17    163.99    326.88    -13.55    320.43    350.41    520.75     56.09
               1999     97.89    310.39    210.31    420.41    -68.78    333.39    437.95    649.58     54.67
               2000    105.24    374.89    268.64    512.32   -109.35    322.53    545.70    818.02     42.19
               2001    104.99    419.85    320.14    591.11   -175.28    261.97    651.58    985.22     25.70
               2002    104.77    458.68    375.36    643.47   -266.94    223.27    758.71   1168.50      1.56
1997-2002 Average       95.28    338.64    243.06    457.38   -101.51    293.61    501.37    754.23     38.59

Prob. of Refinancing Deficits (%)
               1997         8         8         4         7        37        12         0         0         8
               1998         6         6         0         6        49        13         0         0        11
               1999         4         4         1         2        68        14         0         0        13
               2000         3         1         0         1        75        18         0         0        18
               2001         4         3         0         1        85        24         0         0        32
               2002         6         3         0         2        94        27         0         0        44

Nominal Net Worth ($1000)
               1997    625.97   1804.49    536.71   1807.82   1244.59   4682.17   1650.07   2653.70    274.42
               1998    675.19   1945.20    601.17   1985.63   1259.27   4934.01   1808.47   2924.27    289.42
               1999    725.59   2097.96    672.44   2202.41   1279.67   5235.65   1979.81   3219.94    310.76
               2000    763.11   2208.94    737.25   2363.42   1281.22   5467.63   2144.00   3487.63    311.84
               2001    795.73   2293.19    796.62   2505.90   1265.23   5654.06   2294.85   3753.04    323.26
               2002    826.52   2355.74    854.84   2597.94   1230.97   5788.41   2439.44   4003.68    329.29
1997-2002 Average      735.35   2117.59    699.84   2243.85   1260.16   5293.66   2052.77   3340.38    306.50

Prob. of Losing Real Net Worth (%)
               1997         7        11         7         7        36        12         0         0        21
               1998         1         4         1         2        44         9         0         0        13
               1999         0         0         0         0        47         4         0         0        11
               2000         0         1         0         0        61         5         0         0        18
               2001         0         0         0         0        69         4         0         0        23
               2002         0         2         0         0        81         8         0         0        26
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