Table D15. Implications of Incorporating Weather Risk from the 1980s Under
Alternative Farm Policies on Representative Rice Farms in California.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog
CAR424 CAR424 CAR424 CAR1300 CAR1300 CAR1300
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Probability of Lower
Real Equity (%) 35 66 100 100 98 100
Change in Real Net Worth 1995-2003 (%)
Mean -1.99 -15.99 -100 -34.81 -74.71 -100
Std. Dev. 12.44 25.76 77.14 16.96 53.79 92.29
Coef. Var. (%) -625.32 -161.09 -34.52 -48.72 -72 -26.8
Minimum -35.39 -80.13 -395.77 -79.8 -219.14 -565.15
Maximum 17.56 32.3 -61.61 -9.04 7.32 -49.46
Net Cash Income in 1995 ($1,000)
Mean 78.91 78.91 78.91 87.92 87.92 87.92
Std. Dev. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coef. Var. (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minimum 78.91 78.91 78.91 87.92 87.92 87.92
Maximum 78.91 78.91 78.91 87.92 87.92 87.92
Net Cash Income in 1996 ($1,000)
Mean 116.37 140.77 22.48 158.14 211.98 -63.55
Std. Dev. 20.19 57.66 69.05 47.76 150.47 212.03
Coef. Var. (%) 17.35 40.96 307.2 30.2 70.98 -333.64
Minimum 42.97 -37.29 -187.17 -18.01 -250.45 -707.6
Maximum 133.72 195.14 83.99 196.11 352.06 123.13
Net Cash Income in 1997 ($1,000)
Mean 88.32 73.5 -39.98 93.02 35.08 -253.69
Std. Dev. 31.3 54.79 71.34 80.43 143.17 219.17
Coef. Var. (%) 35.44 74.55 -178.44 86.47 408.14 -86.39
Minimum 8.36 -63.52 -220.98 -114.64 -327.06 -810.6
Maximum 112.31 125.36 24.49 150.1 170.19 -57.88
Net Cash Income in 1998 ($1,000)
Mean 76.71 63.49 -52.02 63.4 4.95 -285.16
Std. Dev. 28.68 50.59 67.17 73.54 131.99 206.57
Coef. Var. (%) 37.38 79.68 -129.11 115.99 2668.15 -72.44
Minimum -3.65 -68.05 -228.17 -141.57 -339.98 -824.23
Maximum 98.86 116.37 15.76 117.02 143.46 -78.58
Net Cash Income in 1999 ($1,000)
Mean 67.71 51.04 -72.75 28.19 -40.7 -347.24
Std. Dev. 31.72 56.73 75.96 81.58 148.87 233.64
Coef. Var. (%) 46.85 111.15 -104.41 289.37 -365.72 -67.28
Minimum -14.53 -87.02 -261.87 -183.77 -420.61 -871.17
Maximum 96 117.11 12.94 97.06 132.33 -74.48
Net Cash Income in 2000 ($1,000)
Mean 59.24 49.05 -77.17 -0.85 -53.58 -349.23
Std. Dev. 34.89 64.64 86.2 89 169.89 258.04
Coef. Var. (%) 58.9 131.78 -111.7 -10489.71 -317.05 -73.89
Minimum -22.7 -96.11 -272.52 -209.68 -454.11 -921.12
Maximum 87.12 114.52 5.55 68.78 121.82 -109.73
Net Cash Income in 2001 ($1,000)
Mean 46.63 30.64 -102.2 -54.52 -123.85 -424.57
Std. Dev. 36.03 67.68 87.98 91.63 177.55 265.87
Coef. Var. (%) 77.26 220.91 -86.08 -168.05 -143.36 -62.62
Minimum -36.14 -117.48 -281.18 -266.59 -515.53 -963.36
Maximum 80.14 107.26 -9.36 26.07 74.92 -159.24
Net Cash Income in 2002 ($1,000)
Mean 39.41 28.35 -98.26 -86.67 -143.58 -402.29
Std. Dev. 28.36 56.33 79.19 71.55 148.54 249.36
Coef. Var. (%) 71.97 198.68 -80.59 -82.55 -103.46 -61.99
Minimum -39.3 -120.78 -286.61 -289.37 -557.45 -988.36
Maximum 70.11 102 -9.84 -11.57 51.85 -160.48
Net Cash Income in 2003 ($1,000)
Mean 16.47 13.23 -97.16 -148.13 -187.27 -414.39
Std. Dev. 28.56 58.89 74.22 73.36 154.97 230.41
Coef. Var. (%) 173.39 445.02 -76.39 -49.52 -82.75 -55.6
Minimum -74.99 -155.35 -298.45 -392.45 -650.4 -1038.79
Maximum 47.54 88.51 -25.91 -67.88 21.76 -162.37
Annual Net Cash Farm Income, 1996-2003 ($1000)
Mean 63.86 56.26 -64.63 6.57 -37.12 -317.51
Std. Dev. 13.14 25.98 28.35 34.72 68.72 81.79
Coef. Var. (%) 20.57 46.18 -43.87 528.36 -185.1 -25.76
Minimum 29.51 -5.83 -136.73 -84.84 -189.66 -537.31
Maximum 85.38 109.33 -1.52 60.96 107.01 -146.84
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Table D16. Implications of Incorporating Weather Risk from the 1980s Under
Alternative Farm Policies on Representative Rice Farms in Texas.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog
TXR1500 TXR1500 TXR1500 TXR3900 TXR3900 TXR3900
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Probability of Lower
Real Equity (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100
Change in Real Net Worth 1995-2003 (%)
Mean
Std. Dev. 39.77 61.01 76.7 38.69 62.98 71.52
Coef. Var. (%) -13.74 -19.32 -9.47 -15.45 -24.33 -9.65
Minimum -402.94 -448.5 -981.35 -363.32 -395.87 -894.09
Maximum -205.9 -142.4 -590.77 -147.46 -73.97 -524.62
Net Cash Income in 1995 ($1,000)
Mean 30.81 30.81 30.81 18.1 18.1 18.1
Std. Dev. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coef. Var. (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minimum 30.81 30.81 30.81 18.1 18.1 18.1
Maximum 30.81 30.81 30.81 18.1 18.1 18.1
Net Cash Income in 1996 ($1,000)
Mean 56.13 79.24 -59.07 96.88 158.8 -182.19
Std. Dev. 26.37 47.69 53.88 64.38 117.39 132.82
Coef. Var. (%) 46.98 60.19 -91.22 66.45 73.92 -72.9
Minimum 7.51 -18.4 -153.79 -21.88 -81.5 -415.47
Maximum 104.48 206.74 89.72 215.57 472.48 183.99
Net Cash Income in 1997 ($1,000)
Mean 23.34 12.41 -118.89 3.07 -14.03 -340.86
Std. Dev. 22.17 41.4 50.52 54.51 101.85 126.44
Coef. Var. (%) 95 333.68 -42.49 1774.1 -726.05 -37.09
Minimum -23.8 -63.32 -199.45 -113.28 -200.69 -535.65
Maximum 92.21 157.16 37.41 171 341.48 48.2
Net Cash Income in 1998 ($1,000)
Mean 7.09 -7.11 -126.97 -34.1 -57.92 -363.55
Std. Dev. 20.82 36.04 45.13 50.98 88.66 111.47
Coef. Var. (%) 293.46 -506.97 -35.54 -149.47 -153.08 -30.66
Minimum -41.82 -88.06 -213.13 -154.46 -257.12 -569.09
Maximum 61.83 107.08 15.48 98.29 221.81 -6.53
Net Cash Income in 1999 ($1,000)
Mean -7.23 -22.59 -128.48 -76.71 -100.82 -371.13
Std. Dev. 21.43 38.62 49.32 51.7 94.4 119.3
Coef. Var. (%) -296.25 -170.96 -38.39 -67.39 -93.63 -32.15
Minimum -49.41 -94.34 -206.41 -181.12 -279.34 -558.15
Maximum 45.67 79.1 7.8 52.2 149.21 -30.84
Net Cash Income in 2000 ($1,000)
Mean -23.98 -29.96 -121.43 -111.99 -117.19 -356.29
Std. Dev. 19.62 39.98 51.77 47.48 98.58 128.42
Coef. Var. (%) -81.83 -133.45 -42.64 -42.4 -84.12 -36.04
Minimum -63.8 -103.17 -199.76 -200.07 -278.61 -556.3
Maximum 32.65 122.92 55.36 52.69 264.81 84.4
Net Cash Income in 2001 ($1,000)
Mean -33.87 -34.52 -121.78 -143.29 -142.02 -372.91
Std. Dev. 23.48 44.84 52.38 56.35 107.96 127.49
Coef. Var. (%) -69.33 -129.89 -43.02 -39.33 -76.02 -34.19
Minimum -79.45 -125.58 -216.47 -242.06 -327.38 -602.42
Maximum 30.43 88.4 12.66 10.82 173.36 -39.99
Net Cash Income in 2002 ($1,000)
Mean -54.34 -54.33 -141.56 -183.94 -180.97 -397.45
Std. Dev. 16.51 38.53 49.12 40.8 95.15 121.47
Coef. Var. (%) -30.38 -70.91 -34.7 -22.18 -52.58 -30.56
Minimum -91.21 -130.49 -226.9 -272.75 -369.14 -605.3
Maximum -7.46 71.91 19.82 -73.86 143.85 2.76
Net Cash Income in 2003 ($1,000)
Mean -56.93 -45.4 -129.11 -209.4 -177.48 -382.89
Std. Dev. 20.08 46.73 55.73 49.45 114.29 136.84
Coef. Var. (%) -35.28 -102.94 -43.16 -23.62 -64.39 -35.74
Minimum -103.99 -138.9 -235.12 -320.54 -428.24 -640.08
Maximum 0.06 88.93 17.73 -61.57 156.35 -18.53
Annual Net Cash Farm Income, 1996-2003 ($1000)
Mean -11.22 -12.78 -118.41 -82.44 -78.95 -345.91
Std. Dev. 7.94 13.18 17.21 20.95 35.58 42.84
Coef. Var. (%) -70.77 -103.07 -14.54 -25.41 -45.06 -12.38
Minimum -32.93 -42.98 -156.85 -145.41 -163.53 -438.38
Maximum 8.74 20.93 -70.95 -32.47 13.76 -226.85
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Table D17. Implications of Incorporating Weather Risk from the 1980s Under
Alternative Farm Policies on Representative Rice Farms in Missouri.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog
MOR1900 MOR1900 MOR1900 MOR4000 MOR4000 MOR4000
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Probability of Lower
Real Equity (%) 3 30 99 93 90 100
Change in Real Net Worth 1995-2003 (%)
Mean 9.05 0.29 -80.08 -13.47 -20.04 -51.26
Std. Dev. 9.39 18.61 41.49 6.38 11.16 18.38
Coef. Var. (%) 103.77 6487.56 -51.81 -47.34 -55.68 -35.86
Minimum -14.87 -44.54 -191.72 -28.25 -50.37 -125.16
Maximum 37.2 55.53 14.36 2.65 8.24 -2.9
Net Cash Income in 1995 ($1,000)
Mean 186.34 186.34 186.34 451.16 451.16 451.16
Std. Dev. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coef. Var. (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minimum 186.34 186.34 186.34 451.16 451.16 451.16
Maximum 186.34 186.34 186.34 451.16 451.16 451.16
Net Cash Income in 1996 ($1,000)
Mean 212.72 254.67 126.49 514.15 606.41 381.87
Std. Dev. 53.36 91.93 98.66 174.55 261.17 317.93
Coef. Var. (%) 25.09 36.1 78 33.95 43.07 83.26
Minimum 109 58.72 -87.41 176.37 82.96 -233.7
Maximum 342.78 439.91 314.17 920.74 1153.94 1091.33
Net Cash Income in 1997 ($1,000)
Mean 149.65 143.04 18.36 358.32 344.65 92.32
Std. Dev. 47.33 77.08 86.61 159.15 229.52 289.08
Coef. Var. (%) 31.63 53.88 471.72 44.41 66.59 313.13
Minimum 53.59 -32.84 -180.36 66.4 -95.76 -480.03
Maximum 270.65 321.59 200 746.59 811.15 618.23
Net Cash Income in 1998 ($1,000)
Mean 153.85 140.7 18.46 349.89 319.69 106.17
Std. Dev. 50.73 75.45 86.79 158.19 213.99 280.85
Coef. Var. (%) 32.97 53.63 470.06 45.21 66.94 264.54
Minimum 13.62 -63.11 -203.55 6.98 -175.73 -533.64
Maximum 300.79 302.53 187.85 785.63 923.8 804.43
Net Cash Income in 1999 ($1,000)
Mean 153.68 140.08 12.72 335.15 297.79 78.5
Std. Dev. 48.23 71.6 82.09 167.75 232.29 297.07
Coef. Var. (%) 31.38 51.11 645.26 50.05 78 378.41
Minimum 50.44 -42.48 -195.67 23.01 -123.97 -506.25
Maximum 267.54 317.98 213.65 730.89 872.43 786.94
Net Cash Income in 2000 ($1,000)
Mean 145.14 125.82 -2.2 318.68 269.55 60.91
Std. Dev. 50.15 78.03 90.66 161.6 220.05 291.17
Coef. Var. (%) 34.55 62.02 -4114.73 50.71 81.64 477.99
Minimum 46.87 -31.2 -194.23 -27.89 -205.78 -559.04
Maximum 267.04 257.15 150.81 755.13 737.31 622.24
Net Cash Income in 2001 ($1,000)
Mean 161.32 142.84 11.15 359.34 331.68 139.12
Std. Dev. 59.5 80.26 92.29 156.26 212.65 270.36
Coef. Var. (%) 36.88 56.19 827.6 43.48 64.11 194.34
Minimum 40.4 -57.01 -221.61 -39.49 -230.81 -572.29
Maximum 400.24 312.87 210.95 728.23 729.75 617.93
Net Cash Income in 2002 ($1,000)
Mean 133.22 113.72 -16.09 326.09 281.11 86.2
Std. Dev. 55.41 90.88 101.96 179.3 254.07 333.98
Coef. Var. (%) 41.59 79.92 -633.63 54.99 90.38 387.43
Minimum 1.26 -102.93 -243.95 -27.12 -220.74 -571.07
Maximum 271.15 321.17 207.67 871.58 1007.09 990.9
Net Cash Income in 2003 ($1,000)
Mean 132.35 101.43 -26.1 341.99 283.16 106.64
Std. Dev. 59.11 84.8 97.15 192.99 239.96 317.82
Coef. Var. (%) 44.66 83.6 -372.17 56.43 84.74 298.03
Minimum 13.75 -88.09 -249.78 -7.77 -213.57 -571.57
Maximum 265.51 266.04 149.72 1021.56 790.19 793.21
Annual Net Cash Farm Income, 1996-2003 ($1000)
Mean 155.24 145.29 17.85 362.95 341.76 131.47
Std. Dev. 22.05 38.49 43.37 63.12 98.36 128.18
Coef. Var. (%) 14.2 26.49 242.97 17.39 28.78 97.5
Minimum 103.05 64.15 -62.02 243.15 105.89 -192.55
Maximum 224.53 269.82 171.23 540.57 630.5 527.47
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Table D18. Implications of Incorporating Weather Risk from the 1980s Under
Alternative Farm Policies on Representative Rice Farms in Arkansas and Louisiana.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog
ARR1260 ARR1260 ARR1260 LAR1100 LAR1100 LAR1100
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Probability of Lower
Real Equity (%) 95 88 100 100 100 100
Change in Real Net Worth 1995-2003 (%)
Mean -17.37 -20.6 -100 -100 -100 -300
Std. Dev. 7.99 13.45 39.08 54.62 76.01 68.53
Coef. Var. (%) -46.01 -65.28 -24.57 -51.22 -68.63 -14.69
Minimum -35.27 -51.54 -237.63 -222.27 -290.31 -616.14
Maximum 5.74 13.94 -62.28 -31.03 -1.64 -296.27
Net Cash Income in 1995 ($1,000)
Mean 104.54 104.54 104.54 69.53 69.53 69.53
Std. Dev. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coef. Var. (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minimum 104.54 104.54 104.54 69.53 69.53 69.53
Maximum 104.54 104.54 104.54 69.53 69.53 69.53
Net Cash Income in 1996 ($1,000)
Mean 162.79 196 41.66 77.5 89.16 -1.6
Std. Dev. 39.74 84.06 86.04 21.6 44.93 46.69
Coef. Var. (%) 24.41 42.89 206.53 27.87 50.39 -2914.56
Minimum 91.35 48.34 -102.24 31.74 5.63 -83.99
Maximum 261.34 367.58 216.34 127.16 176.46 87.72
Net Cash Income in 1997 ($1,000)
Mean 108.64 106.07 -43.5 57.62 56.5 -32.05
Std. Dev. 39.22 63 65.8 21.4 37.12 41.64
Coef. Var. (%) 36.11 59.4 -151.27 37.15 65.7 -129.9
Minimum 20.7 -16.17 -167.1 11.56 -11.63 -102.92
Maximum 193.19 228.14 86.61 96.29 125.18 42.45
Net Cash Income in 1998 ($1,000)
Mean 97.14 96.96 -56.93 53.05 55.05 -36.75
Std. Dev. 37.54 62.58 68.6 23.78 40.05 45.8
Coef. Var. (%) 38.64 64.54 -120.49 44.82 72.75 -124.61
Minimum 15.89 -21.98 -182.39 6.53 -21.35 -123.76
Maximum 189.48 209.8 71.35 108.55 128.49 43.58
Net Cash Income in 1999 ($1,000)
Mean 96.33 94.05 -68 37.16 37.31 -46.69
Std. Dev. 45.19 72.48 79.93 22.79 37.44 42.72
Coef. Var. (%) 46.91 77.06 -117.56 61.32 100.34 -91.51
Minimum 3.28 -47.41 -220.67 -11.29 -37.36 -126.7
Maximum 217.75 234.31 93.45 95.99 124.02 45.12
Net Cash Income in 2000 ($1,000)
Mean 97.7 92.87 -79.06 27.51 27.88 -50.75
Std. Dev. 43.34 67.46 73.37 21.16 36.8 43.31
Coef. Var. (%) 44.36 72.63 -92.8 76.92 131.98 -85.35
Minimum 22.08 -23.98 -213.48 -16.41 -41.68 -128.38
Maximum 208.43 243.53 80.73 79.99 110.36 35.13
Net Cash Income in 2001 ($1,000)
Mean 90.72 95.79 -72.23 13.18 18.92 -37.46
Std. Dev. 40.5 68.51 74.66 21.37 38.3 39.59
Coef. Var. (%) 44.64 71.52 -103.37 162.13 202.43 -105.69
Minimum 6.65 -40.45 -217.21 -42.49 -72.08 -122.21
Maximum 192.42 237.63 81.05 66.86 91.87 32.2
Net Cash Income in 2002 ($1,000)
Mean 71.82 67.93 -95.46 -2.24 -0.46 -47.98
Std. Dev. 41.71 67.09 78.17 23.09 39.88 45.61
Coef. Var. (%) 58.08 98.77 -81.89 -1030.85 -8749.77 -95.07
Minimum -10.8 -54.05 -246.8 -44.46 -68.13 -118.65
Maximum 182.83 235.63 76.58 46.54 88.04 48.55
Net Cash Income in 2003 ($1,000)
Mean 65.76 74.85 -83.68 -11.08 0.56 -46.18
Std. Dev. 38.67 69.52 79.87 18.94 38.33 41.72
Coef. Var. (%) 58.8 92.87 -95.44 -170.83 6795.46 -90.36
Minimum -15.86 -62.13 -224.43 -61.7 -94.57 -135.12
Maximum 181.81 203.09 60.1 28.83 74.36 31.74
Annual Net Cash Farm Income, 1996-2003 ($1000)
Mean 98.86 103.06 -57.15 31.59 35.62 -37.43
Std. Dev. 17.49 29.01 27.06 9.56 16.13 14.93
Coef. Var. (%) 17.7 28.14 -47.35 30.26 45.28 -39.88
Minimum 59.32 41.73 -120.08 11.41 1.97 -70.7
Maximum 153.19 181.27 22.66 55.99 77.21 -0.4
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