Table D6. Implications of Incorporating Weather Risk from the 1980s Under
Alternative Farm Policies on Representative Wheat Farms in Washington.
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Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog
WAW1276 WAW1276 WAW1276 WAW4250 WAW4250 WAW4250
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Probability of Lower
Real Equity (%) 100 100 100 99 98 100
Change in Real Net Worth 1995-2003 (%)
Mean -34.44 -40.19 -57.53 -17.26 -23 -44.76
Std. Dev. 6.59 11.18 14.99 7.48 12.43 14.12
Coef. Var. (%) -19.14 -27.81 -26.05 -43.36 -54.04 -31.54
Minimum -54.17 -69.77 -115.06 -39.1 -55.44 -85.48
Maximum -15.07 -20.42 -32.96 3.63 0.6 -18.58
Net Cash Income in 1995 ($1,000)
Mean 43.83 43.83 43.83 186.97 186.97 186.97
Std. Dev. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coef. Var. (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minimum 43.83 43.83 43.83 186.97 186.97 186.97
Maximum 43.83 43.83 43.83 186.97 186.97 186.97
Net Cash Income in 1996 ($1,000)
Mean 48.4 64.78 42.47 206.64 265.75 178.02
Std. Dev. 30.03 49.77 53.39 97.84 160.71 164.76
Coef. Var. (%) 62.06 76.82 125.71 47.35 60.48 92.56
Minimum -15.95 -43.71 -67.68 0.91 -82.84 -163.59
Maximum 123.88 186.61 174.7 456.66 659.49 585.73
Net Cash Income in 1997 ($1,000)
Mean 40.35 39.14 9.78 166.84 169.87 66.28
Std. Dev. 30.95 45.32 49.92 90.55 143.36 150.74
Coef. Var. (%) 76.69 115.79 510.52 54.27 84.39 227.42
Minimum -13.72 -47.7 -83.65 5.13 -105.03 -216.42
Maximum 111.86 146.26 128.94 366.45 509.49 428.02
Net Cash Income in 1998 ($1,000)
Mean 26.39 26.35 -1.78 131.61 129.67 27.24
Std. Dev. 26.28 41.74 47.41 83.65 132.27 143.09
Coef. Var. (%) 99.62 158.38 -2661.49 63.56 102 525.34
Minimum -21.93 -56.02 -91.93 -17.97 -134.27 -253.82
Maximum 113.61 107.81 92.5 408.69 391.24 309.08
Net Cash Income in 1999 ($1,000)
Mean 27.64 23.2 -4.71 139.45 122.85 19.89
Std. Dev. 29.05 43.18 46.98 92.41 136.87 142.61
Coef. Var. (%) 105.07 186.1 -998.06 66.26 111.41 717.17
Minimum -25 -67.02 -98.19 -23.85 -162.68 -273.37
Maximum 105.06 122.43 103.29 381.77 434.2 345.32
Net Cash Income in 2000 ($1,000)
Mean 17.92 8.15 -14.64 124.26 90.62 -2.07
Std. Dev. 31.12 42.6 46.81 100.11 134.88 142.25
Coef. Var. (%) 173.71 522.94 -319.8 80.57 148.85 -6860.45
Minimum -46.49 -84.47 -112.2 -72.79 -194.53 -291.69
Maximum 153.5 122.53 108.9 562.01 464.45 383.7
Net Cash Income in 2001 ($1,000)
Mean 9.66 3.84 -11.7 128.43 107.07 23.29
Std. Dev. 37.22 48.13 52.33 116.15 148.44 156.04
Coef. Var. (%) 385.46 1252.42 -447.15 90.44 138.65 669.89
Minimum -44.21 -92.5 -124.1 -64.97 -193.33 -281.69
Maximum 157.27 117.56 101.77 542.54 429.34 375.25
Net Cash Income in 2002 ($1,000)
Mean 5.5 -5.29 -24.25 118.15 84.48 2.08
Std. Dev. 27.01 42.53 46.68 86.42 133.73 141.62
Coef. Var. (%) 491.15 -804.03 -192.54 73.15 158.3 6813.78
Minimum -58.91 -106.66 -144.81 -105.29 -254.3 -345.32
Maximum 72.67 93.93 81.41 346.75 412.09 339.65
Net Cash Income in 2003 ($1,000)
Mean -2.6 -18.28 -37.03 110.29 63.34 -12.61
Std. Dev. 35.25 47.71 53.99 111.41 150.38 161.44
Coef. Var. (%) -1355.89 -260.96 -145.8 101.02 237.41 -1280.54
Minimum -70.7 -121.09 -155.28 -101.83 -261.22 -359.81
Maximum 90.26 99.92 98.88 404.79 444.49 388.35
Annual Net Cash Farm Income, 1996-2003 ($1000)
Mean 21.66 17.74 -5.23 140.71 129.21 37.76
Std. Dev. 12.1 20.33 22.98 43.3 67.84 70.65
Coef. Var. (%) 55.88 114.59 -439.24 30.77 52.51 187.1
Minimum -11.17 -33.68 -64.14 19.34 -38.36 -149.89
Maximum 59.73 60.59 42.67 270.52 273.94 186.54
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Table D7. Implications of Incorporating Weather Risk from the 1980s Under
Alternative Farm Policies on Representative Wheat Farms in North Dakota.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog
NDW1600 NDW1600 NDW1600 NDW4000 NDW4000 NDW4000
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Probability of Lower
Real Equity (%) 95 100 100 89 95 100
Change in Real Net Worth 1995-2003 (%)
Mean -63.08 -100 -100 -30.17 -46.91 -100
Std. Dev. 45.17 63.37 69.88 20.51 28.97 51.83
Coef. Var. (%) -71.6 -55.8 -33.39 -67.99 -61.77 -45.79
Minimum -182.94 -253.61 -344.55 -80.02 -152.66 -225.41
Maximum 4.56 -4.38 -47.75 14.59 9.5 -23.79
Net Cash Income in 1995 ($1,000)
Mean 67.01 67.01 67.01 126.08 126.08 126.08
Std. Dev. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coef. Var. (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minimum 67.01 67.01 67.01 126.08 126.08 126.08
Maximum 67.01 67.01 67.01 126.08 126.08 126.08
Net Cash Income in 1996 ($1,000)
Mean 71.53 74.1 45.03 125.94 143.29 61.03
Std. Dev. 27.59 34.52 36.46 73.61 97.06 98.36
Coef. Var. (%) 38.57 46.58 80.97 58.45 67.73 161.17
Minimum 10.83 -1.81 -28.84 -25.19 -55.87 -132.59
Maximum 128.17 160.3 138.75 286.03 390.92 315.54
Net Cash Income in 1997 ($1,000)
Mean 56.18 47.8 17.3 94.8 81.67 -5.48
Std. Dev. 34.97 40.49 43.22 94.26 113.86 116.56
Coef. Var. (%) 62.26 84.71 249.85 99.42 139.42 -2126.44
Minimum -9.56 -25.42 -57.36 -77.15 -120.02 -211.12
Maximum 134.86 131.75 107.17 330.95 322.22 237.81
Net Cash Income in 1998 ($1,000)
Mean 32.79 24.97 2.24 52.7 39.59 -36.38
Std. Dev. 27.62 30.68 35.24 73.74 87.52 92.12
Coef. Var. (%) 84.23 122.88 1572.35 139.91 221.06 -253.23
Minimum -25.18 -42.77 -75.58 -96.42 -143.57 -230.2
Maximum 101.74 99.09 80.57 224.89 258.37 182.49
Net Cash Income in 1999 ($1,000)
Mean 35.64 22.37 1.89 68.65 39.79 -31.57
Std. Dev. 27.81 32.3 36.33 78.62 95.55 97.96
Coef. Var. (%) 78.03 144.41 1919.32 114.52 240.15 -310.32
Minimum -18.86 -51.62 -75.43 -72.68 -146.06 -214.02
Maximum 91.8 118.94 94.33 216.73 274.99 208.65
Net Cash Income in 2000 ($1,000)
Mean 36.58 18.47 -1.28 88.63 51.51 -12.64
Std. Dev. 33.34 35.58 40.35 102.14 110.02 116.16
Coef. Var. (%) 91.14 192.68 -3163.85 115.24 213.61 -918.96
Minimum -17.53 -44.02 -74.33 -105.42 -145.38 -252.72
Maximum 126.85 94.88 88.59 351.62 268.67 237.29
Net Cash Income in 2001 ($1,000)
Mean 30.27 16.53 2.09 76.19 48.26 -8.72
Std. Dev. 33.19 35.97 40.41 100.47 107.54 114.77
Coef. Var. (%) 109.64 217.64 1937.78 131.87 222.81 -1316.57
Minimum -32.45 -58.97 -63.77 -135.54 -196.94 -248.79
Maximum 123.93 116.69 127.09 342.32 311.73 314.04
Net Cash Income in 2002 ($1,000)
Mean 30.24 12.29 5.9 91.12 46.09 -11.31
Std. Dev. 31.81 33.03 39 97.08 102.88 110.85
Coef. Var. (%) 105.21 268.66 661.33 106.54 223.24 -980.06
Minimum -47.26 -59.82 -78.28 -164.33 -191.35 -236.75
Maximum 95.96 96.11 99.79 280.59 254.17 277.37
Net Cash Income in 2003 ($1,000)
Mean 24.31 4.24 7.16 71.58 14.5 -19.59
Std. Dev. 36.64 37.27 43.84 114.69 120.7 127.84
Coef. Var. (%) 150.76 879.16 612.53 160.23 832.64 -652.56
Minimum -36.53 -85.27 -87.7 -157.81 -248.07 -270.02
Maximum 125.68 112.42 130.57 353.38 331.24 290.89
Annual Net Cash Farm Income, 1996-2003 ($1000)
Mean 39.69 27.6 10.04 83.7 58.09 -8.08
Std. Dev. 14.49 15.45 14.66 44.25 51.45 48.98
Coef. Var. (%) 36.51 55.99 145.97 52.87 88.57 -606.07
Minimum 12.26 -6.54 -21.81 -20.53 -61.64 -103.93
Maximum 71.11 68.71 49.02 178.99 184.52 123.61
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Table D8. Implications of Incorporating Weather Risk from the 1980s Under
Alternative Farm Policies on Representative Wheat Farms in Kansas.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog
KSW1175 KSW1175 KSW1175 KSW2800 KSW2800 KSW2800
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Probability of Lower
Real Equity (%) 100 100 100 97 100 100
Change in Real Net Worth 1995-2003 (%)
Mean -55.91 -94.19 -100 -30.95 -71.06 -100
Std. Dev. 14.67 38.32 38.69 14.98 36.85 53.82
Coef. Var. (%) -26.24 -40.69 -20.23 -48.4 -51.85 -41.05
Minimum -107.33 -189.09 -270.03 -62.65 -184.6 -241.66
Maximum -16.74 -26.23 -78.11 12.51 -1.94 -41.91
Net Cash Income in 1995 ($1,000)
Mean 43.66 43.66 43.66 76.14 76.14 76.14
Std. Dev. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coef. Var. (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minimum 43.66 43.66 43.66 76.14 76.14 76.14
Maximum 43.66 43.66 43.66 76.14 76.14 76.14
Net Cash Income in 1996 ($1,000)
Mean 32.46 30.42 5.08 70.83 63.16 37.02
Std. Dev. 14.77 27.89 26.34 29.53 57.05 57.42
Coef. Var. (%) 45.49 91.67 518.57 41.69 90.32 155.09
Minimum 5.89 -24.83 -43.98 18.21 -49.04 -73.32
Maximum 60.32 84.41 53.57 125.65 173.06 180.09
Net Cash Income in 1997 ($1,000)
Mean 32.13 21.58 -5.57 64.48 39.86 3.73
Std. Dev. 17.55 24.89 25.67 35.51 50.87 55.57
Coef. Var. (%) 54.64 115.36 -461.34 55.07 127.62 1491.84
Minimum 2.18 -29.83 -53.8 5 -64.7 -90.18
Maximum 82.63 92.64 63.94 168.12 185.61 148.63
Net Cash Income in 1998 ($1,000)
Mean 25.8 15.91 -10.09 57.8 33.6 -2.69
Std. Dev. 18.04 26.82 27.37 36.98 54.53 56.01
Coef. Var. (%) 69.92 168.54 -271.27 63.98 162.31 -2081.08
Minimum -9.1 -44.8 -67.41 -12.89 -90.8 -129.44
Maximum 82.72 84.1 56.86 173.52 170.3 125.78
Net Cash Income in 1999 ($1,000)
Mean 20.39 8.83 -15.78 52.29 23.1 -12.2
Std. Dev. 18.76 31.64 31.35 35.76 64.9 59.99
Coef. Var. (%) 92 358.18 -198.66 68.38 280.99 -491.77
Minimum -15.82 -51.25 -66.38 -14.25 -91.59 -119.17
Maximum 62.68 90.04 59.8 137.18 184.63 116.24
Net Cash Income in 2000 ($1,000)
Mean 25.86 8.73 -16.45 66.4 27.46 -10.54
Std. Dev. 24.37 31.94 31.38 48.21 65.04 60.78
Coef. Var. (%) 94.24 365.7 -190.74 72.6 236.87 -576.75
Minimum -14.36 -49.56 -68.53 -9.2 -82.77 -115.09
Maximum 121.94 92.97 60.27 272.2 191.4 132.96
Net Cash Income in 2001 ($1,000)
Mean 22.45 6.26 -17.66 63.59 30.57 -2.76
Std. Dev. 22.86 31.68 30.92 45.67 65.39 58.44
Coef. Var. (%) 101.82 506.5 -175.05 71.83 213.89 -2113.66
Minimum -17.57 -56.56 -78.46 -19.19 -95.04 -103.28
Maximum 106.14 83.18 52.83 237.2 183.22 121.07
Net Cash Income in 2002 ($1,000)
Mean 12.93 -5.78 -23.94 39.63 3.95 -20.05
Std. Dev. 17.98 30.68 29.23 35.63 61.45 59.84
Coef. Var. (%) 139 -530.4 -122.08 89.91 1553.92 -298.53
Minimum -24.37 -63.98 -86.62 -31.3 -100.44 -124.42
Maximum 65.69 78.62 40.08 140.47 164.96 95.29
Net Cash Income in 2003 ($1,000)
Mean 8.73 -8.88 -17.56 33.71 -5.71 -18.9
Std. Dev. 20.28 30.28 28.65 39.32 61.5 58.11
Coef. Var. (%) 232.36 -340.9 -163.15 116.65 -1077.02 -307.52
Minimum -30.56 -77.36 -75.02 -41.59 -133.8 -139.65
Maximum 61 66.98 58.35 136.63 132.8 146.52
Annual Net Cash Farm Income, 1996-2003 ($1000)
Mean 22.59 9.63 -12.75 56.09 27 -3.3
Std. Dev. 8.68 13.24 10.88 17.16 27.07 24.53
Coef. Var. (%) 38.4 137.39 -85.38 30.6 100.28 -743.59
Minimum 2.77 -19.2 -36.04 20.87 -31.8 -54.08
Maximum 48.64 45.8 17.03 110.22 98.38 56.96
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Table D9. Implications of Incorporating Weather Risk from the 1980s Under
Alternative Farm Policies, on Representative Wheat Farms in Colorado.
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Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog Baseline Mkt Loan No Prog
COW2500 COW2500 COW2500 COW4000 COW4000 COW4000
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Probability of Lower
Real Equity (%) 1 100 100 100 100 100
Change in Real Net Worth 1995-2003 (%)
Mean 5.95 -20.43 -52.31 -17.89 -48.34 -97.04
Std. Dev. 3.87 8.01 9.48 7.41 12.68 25.94
Coef. Var. (%) 65.01 -39.21 -18.12 -41.45 -26.23 -26.73
Minimum -5.11 -43.85 -74.8 -37.76 -79.26 -158.59
Maximum 13.75 -3.42 -29.92 -2.57 -20.24 -53.35
Net Cash Income in 1995 ($1,000)
Mean 85.6 85.6 85.6 84.89 84.89 84.89
Std. Dev. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coef. Var. (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minimum 85.6 85.6 85.6 84.89 84.89 84.89
Maximum 85.6 85.6 85.6 84.89 84.89 84.89
Net Cash Income in 1996 ($1,000)
Mean 101.83 66.46 39.46 101.39 62.1 15.01
Std. Dev. 19.98 32.95 30.28 37.73 60.57 56
Coef. Var. (%) 19.62 49.57 76.74 37.21 97.54 373.1
Minimum 65.77 8.7 -12.06 27.31 -42.26 -77.35
Maximum 142.89 136.54 103.14 171.78 183.07 124.92
Net Cash Income in 1997 ($1,000)
Mean 86.18 45.29 17.86 76.78 26.94 -20.99
Std. Dev. 18.58 29.12 27.05 34.46 53.37 49.67
Coef. Var. (%) 21.56 64.3 151.45 44.88 198.1 -236.57
Minimum 47.65 -12.37 -31.01 -3.66 -80.86 -112.63
Maximum 143.18 125.65 92.6 169.93 155.68 99.54
Net Cash Income in 1998 ($1,000)
Mean 89.73 47.1 18.46 70.54 21.34 -26.53
Std. Dev. 18.26 27.85 26.26 33.57 49.92 46.73
Coef. Var. (%) 20.35 59.12 142.22 47.59 233.88 -176.16
Minimum 53.82 -10.11 -33.12 0.5 -80.77 -114.16
Maximum 157.94 113.47 81.58 188.42 136.57 80.88
Net Cash Income in 1999 ($1,000)
Mean 82.84 37.57 10.83 53.64 -1.59 -45.51
Std. Dev. 19.2 29.15 27.77 35.16 51.94 49.72
Coef. Var. (%) 23.18 77.58 256.28 65.54 -3267.06 -109.26
Minimum 50.83 -15.71 -35.1 -3.93 -92.3 -126.72
Maximum 139.39 99.88 68.48 166.41 106.44 56.12
Net Cash Income in 2000 ($1,000)
Mean 78.15 40.3 14.73 48.57 0.68 -45.56
Std. Dev. 20.62 30.61 29.28 38.22 55.34 52.98
Coef. Var. (%) 26.38 75.94 198.84 78.69 8194.35 -116.28
Minimum 30.2 -13.82 -36.03 -42.13 -92.82 -128.12
Maximum 132.87 115.91 86.15 137.29 131.46 72.61
Net Cash Income in 2001 ($1,000)
Mean 78.32 36.35 11.31 49.13 -6.84 -58.17
Std. Dev. 20.89 32.53 32.37 38.12 58.11 58.13
Coef. Var. (%) 26.67 89.5 286.25 77.58 -849.82 -99.93
Minimum 30.69 -19.47 -37.93 -31.88 -97.67 -153.21
Maximum 128.69 113.61 89.37 140.04 125.33 70.25
Net Cash Income in 2002 ($1,000)
Mean 73.91 30.37 4.87 37.39 -21.55 -73.03
Std. Dev. 20.03 28.58 28.5 35.68 51.87 52.38
Coef. Var. (%) 27.1 94.12 585.42 95.43 -240.73 -71.72
Minimum 28.64 -22.89 -42.55 -35.88 -105.07 -164.86
Maximum 129.15 114.74 86.38 135.78 119.88 69.01
Net Cash Income in 2003 ($1,000)
Mean 75.48 32.05 4.51 36.88 -25.79 -74.99
Std. Dev. 23.38 32.17 33 43.21 58.31 59.15
Coef. Var. (%) 30.98 100.39 732.09 117.18 -226.1 -78.88
Minimum 31.99 -34.89 -57.05 -49.27 -143.32 -185
Maximum 125.52 104.67 77.55 132.87 103.69 47.78
Annual Net Cash Farm Income, 1996-2003 ($1000)
Mean 83.3 41.94 15.25 59.29 6.91 -41.22
Std. Dev. 8.25 12.6 12.51 16.11 23.75 22.69
Coef. Var. (%) 9.9 30.04 82.02 27.17 343.6 -55.03
Minimum 59.55 10.29 -12.79 14.11 -50.29 -89.94
Maximum 100.55 68.65 43.97 92.5 56.28 11.05
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