Table A1. Comparison of Assumed Rates of Change in Input Prices,
and Annual Interest Rates for Alternative Policy Scenarios.
____________________________________________________________________________________
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
____________________________________________________________________________________
Annual Rate of Change for Input Prices Paid
Seed Prices (%)
Baseline 1.39 3.96 0.74 2.83 2.61 2.23 2.9 2.25
Marketing Loan 1.39 3.96 0.74 2.83 2.61 2.23 2.9 2.25
No Program 1.39 3.96 0.74 2.83 2.61 2.23 2.9 2.25
Fertilizer Prices (%)
Baseline 0.47 10.77 4 -4.67 -2.13 1.94 2.69 2.96
Marketing Loan 0.47 10.77 4 -4.67 -2.13 1.94 2.69 2.96
No Program 0.47 10.77 4 -4.67 -2.13 1.94 2.69 2.96
Chemical Prices (%)
Baseline 0.45 3.11 3.64 4.32 3.24 3.53 2.74 3.1
Marketing Loan 0.45 3.11 3.64 4.32 3.24 3.53 2.74 3.1
No Program 0.45 3.11 3.64 4.32 3.24 3.53 2.74 3.1
Machinery Prices (%)
Baseline 0.57 0.92 1.4 2.06 2.44 2.58 2.69 2.92
Marketing Loan 0.57 0.92 1.4 2.06 2.44 2.58 2.69 2.92
No Program 0.57 0.92 1.4 2.06 2.44 2.58 2.69 2.92
Fuel and Lube Prices (%)
Baseline -0.32 -1.89 2.77 2.75 3.22 3.88 5.17 5.12
Marketing Loan -0.32 -1.89 2.77 2.75 3.22 3.88 5.17 5.12
No Program -0.32 -1.89 2.77 2.75 3.22 3.88 5.17 5.12
Labor (%)
Baseline 1.86 1.21 1.63 1.83 1.67 2.11 2.69 2.86
Marketing Loan 1.86 1.21 1.63 1.83 1.67 2.11 2.69 2.86
No Program 1.86 1.21 1.63 1.83 1.67 2.11 2.69 2.86
Other Input Prices (%)
Baseline 1.49 1.31 2.71 3.2 3.23 3.29 3.44 3.55
Marketing Loan 1.49 1.31 2.71 3.2 3.23 3.29 3.44 3.55
No Program 1.49 1.31 2.71 3.2 3.23 3.29 3.44 3.55
Consumer Price Index
Baseline 144.56 148.42 153.35 158.69 164.28 169.97 175.99 182.33
Marketing Loan 144.56 148.42 153.35 158.69 164.28 169.97 175.99 182.33
No Program 144.56 148.42 153.35 158.69 164.28 169.97 175.99 182.33
Annual Interest Rates
Long-Term Interest Rates (%)
Baseline 7.17 7.5 8.16 8.41 8.53 8.63 8.61 8.52
Marketing Loan 7.17 7.5 8.16 8.41 8.53 8.63 8.61 8.52
No Program 7.17 7.5 8.16 8.41 8.53 8.63 8.61 8.52
Intermediate-Term Interest Rates (%)
Baseline 6 7.21 9.5 9.5 9.1 9.06 8.96 8.81
Marketing Loan 6 7.21 9.5 9.5 9.1 9.06 8.96 8.81
No Program 6 7.21 9.5 9.5 9.1 9.06 8.96 8.81
Savings Account Interest Rates (%)
Baseline 2 3.21 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.06 4.96 4.81
Marketing Loan 2 3.21 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.06 4.96 4.81
No Program 2 3.21 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.06 4.96 4.81
____________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University
of Missouri-Columbia and Iowa State University.
Table A2. Comparison of Crop Prices for Alternative Policy Scenarios.
____________________________________________________________________________________
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
____________________________________________________________________________________
Corn ($/bu.)
Baseline 2.31 2.1 3.05 2.34 2.05 2.06 2.38 3.56 2.56
Marketing Loan 2.31 1.95 3 2.33 2.07 1.9 2.2 3.61 2.44
No Program 2.31 2.04 3.22 2.42 2.19 2.04 2.39 3.78 2.52
Wheat ($/bu.)
Baseline 3.35 2.98 3.42 2.96 3.04 3.4 3.37 3.83 3.99
Marketing Loan 3.35 2.61 3.08 2.7 2.77 2.95 2.99 3.88 3.74
No Program 3.35 2.68 3.31 2.98 2.93 3.03 3.04 4.12 3.81
Cotton ($/lb.)
Baseline 0.6376 0.6458 0.7174 0.5967 0.5913 0.642 0.5266 0.6194 0.6893
Marketing Loan 0.6376 0.6479 0.7116 0.5871 0.5473 0.5955 0.4996 0.5027 0.6263
No Program 0.6376 0.6752 0.7241 0.6076 0.6168 0.6485 0.5346 0.5874 0.718
Sorghum ($/bu.)
Baseline 2.23 2.03 2.88 2.27 1.88 1.9 2.18 3.2 2.52
Marketing Loan 2.23 1.87 2.84 2.27 1.9 1.71 1.96 3.23 2.47
No Program 2.23 1.97 3.02 2.35 1.99 1.86 2.17 3.36 2.55
Soybeans ($/bu.)
Baseline 5.48 5.34 6.82 6.72 5.16 5.13 5.53 8.08 6.99
Marketing Loan 5.48 5.22 6.61 6.49 5.05 4.99 5.25 7.72 6.8
No Program 5.48 4.94 6.65 6.65 4.99 5.02 5.35 7.96 6.71
Barley ($/bu.)
Baseline 2.21 2.08 2.39 2.13 1.95 2.01 2.27 3.23 2.55
Marketing Loan 2.21 1.76 2.3 1.98 1.87 1.8 2.07 3.32 2.38
No Program 2.21 1.79 2.36 1.99 1.89 1.87 2.14 3.39 2.43
Oats ($/bu.)
Baseline 1.29 1.26 1.46 1.3 1.2 1.23 1.43 2.05 1.85
Marketing Loan 1.29 1.17 1.38 1.23 1.12 1.11 1.29 1.99 1.78
No Program 1.29 1.07 1.33 1.22 1.13 1.12 1.29 2 1.8
Rice ($/cwt.)
Baseline 6.55 6.65 6.96 6.91 6.29 7.25 6.91 7.3 7.79
Marketing Loan 6.55 6.7 7.08 7.49 6.54 6.85 7.07 7.48 8.69
No Program 6.55 8.1 7.4 8.59 7.24 7.59 7.64 8.34 9.59
Soybean Meal ($/ton)
Baseline 160.98 157.46 195.72 191.91 161.21 164.15 175.55 238.94 214
Marketing Loan 160.98 154.27 191.41 186.99 157.56 157.79 166.84 229.64 206.3
No Program 160.98 149.04 192.01 190.19 157.57 160.41 170.94 236.67 205.79
All Hay ($/ton)
Baseline 76.15 65.59 76.01 71.19 67.31 57.22 65.58 105.62 96.2
Marketing Loan 76.15 64.92 74.98 70.03 66.28 55.72 64.09 105.37 95.77
No Program 76.15 64.32 74.05 67.88 63.2 52.16 60.26 101.62 91.74
____________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University
of Missouri-Columbia and Iowa State University.
Table A3. Comparison of Loan Rates for Alternative Policy Scenarios.
____________________________________________________________________________________
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
____________________________________________________________________________________
Corn ($/bu.)
Baseline 1.83 1.83 1.76 1.87 1.83 1.81 1.75 1.83 1.83
Marketing Loan 1.83 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
No Program 1.83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wheat ($/bu.)
Baseline 2.56 2.65 2.65 2.69 2.62 2.52 2.53 2.64 2.64
Marketing Loan 2.56 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35
No Program 2.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cotton ($/lb.)
Baseline 0.5192 0.5073 0.5293 0.5551 0.5551 0.533 0.5339 0.5185 0.5121
Marketing Loan 0.5192 0.611 0.611 0.611 0.611 0.611 0.611 0.611 0.611
No Program 0.5192 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sorghum ($/bu.)
Baseline 1.74 1.74 1.67 1.78 1.74 1.72 1.66 1.74 1.74
Marketing Loan 1.74 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19
No Program 1.74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Soybeans ($/bu.)
Baseline 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
Marketing Loan 4.92 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.53
No Program 4.92 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Barley ($/bu.)
Baseline 1.49 1.49 1.43 1.52 1.49 1.48 1.43 1.49 1.49
Marketing Loan 1.49 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98
No Program 1.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oats ($/bu.)
Baseline 0.94 0.94 0.91 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.9 0.94 0.94
Marketing Loan 0.94 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22
No Program 0.94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rice ($/cwt.)
Baseline 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Marketing Loan 6.5 8.97 8.97 8.97 8.97 8.97 8.97 8.97 8.97
No Program 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
____________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University
of Missouri-Columbia and Iowa State University.
Table A4. Comparison of Target Prices for Alternative Policy Scenarios.
____________________________________________________________________________________
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
____________________________________________________________________________________
Corn ($/bu.)
Baseline 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
Marketing Loan 2.75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 2.75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wheat ($/bu.)
Baseline 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Marketing Loan 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cotton ($/lb.)
Baseline 0.729 0.729 0.729 0.729 0.729 0.729 0.729 0.729 0.729
Marketing Loan 0.729 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0.729 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sorghum ($/bu.)
Baseline 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61
Marketing Loan 2.61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 2.61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Barley ($/bu.)
Baseline 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36
Marketing Loan 2.36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 2.36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oats ($/bu.)
Baseline 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45
Marketing Loan 1.45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 1.45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rice ($/cwt.)
Baseline 10.71 10.71 10.71 10.71 10.71 10.71 10.71 10.71 10.71
Marketing Loan 10.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 10.71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
____________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University
of Missouri-Columbia and Iowa State University.
Table A5. Comparison of Acreage Reduction Fractions for Alternative Policy Scenarios.
Policy Scenarios.
____________________________________________________________________________________
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
____________________________________________________________________________________
Corn
Baseline 0.075 0.05 0.075 0 0.025 0.05 0.05 0.05 0
Marketing Loan 0.075 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0.075 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wheat
Baseline 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Marketing Loan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cotton
Baseline 0 0 0.025 0.025 0.075 0.1 0.075 0.125 0.1
Marketing Loan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sorghum
Baseline 0 0 0 0 0 0.025 0 0 0
Marketing Loan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Barley
Baseline 0 0 0 0 0 0.025 0 0 0
Marketing Loan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oats
Baseline 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Marketing Loan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rice
Baseline 0.05 0 0 0 0 0.05 0 0 0
Marketing Loan 0.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
____________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University
of Missouri-Columbia and Iowa State University.
Table A6. Comparison of Non-Payment Acreage Fractions (NFA) for Alternative Policy Scenarios.
Alternative Policy Scenarios.
____________________________________________________________________________________
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
____________________________________________________________________________________
Corn
Baseline 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Marketing Loan 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wheat
Baseline 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Marketing Loan 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cotton
Baseline 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Marketing Loan 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sorghum
Baseline 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Marketing Loan 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Barley
Baseline 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Marketing Loan 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oats
Baseline 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Marketing Loan 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rice
Baseline 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Marketing Loan 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Program 0.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
____________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University
of Missouri-Columbia and Iowa State University.
Table A7. Comparison of Annual Rates of Change in Farmland Values, by Region
for Alternative Policy Scenarios.
___________________________________________________________________________________
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
___________________________________________________________________________________
Pacific Northwest (%)
Baseline -1.4 -1.82 3.8 1 -6.93 -3.89 0.24 3.83
Marketing Loan -1.43 -2.15 0.98 0.59 -6.21 -8.05 -2.51 6.71
No Program -1.45 -3.07 0.47 2.4 -6.8 -8.01 -1.83 6.05
California (%)
Baseline 0.67 2.33 3.44 1.89 2.55 4.03 2.96 2.73
Marketing Loan 0.67 2.4 3.23 2.36 3.2 3.56 3.39 2.66
No Program 0.69 2.3 3.23 1.96 2.62 3.62 2.78 2.14
Mountain States (%)
Baseline -1.4 -1.82 3.8 1 -6.93 -3.89 0.24 3.83
Marketing Loan -1.43 -2.15 0.98 0.59 -6.21 -8.05 -2.51 6.71
No Program -1.45 -3.07 0.47 2.4 -6.8 -8.01 -1.83 6.05
Midwestern States (%)
Baseline 0.64 1.54 2.78 0.18 -1.94 2.14 4.93 5.12
Marketing Loan 0.72 2.66 -0.21 -2.08 2.71 4.8 1.59 0.83
No Program 0.63 -1.75 -1.03 2.26 0.25 -0.94 1.04 6.51
Delta States (%)
Baseline -1.06 0.44 -0.51 -0.75 -1.47 -4.34 -4.44 3.15
Marketing Loan -1.03 0.09 -2.17 -0.62 0.46 -4.46 -4.11 2.42
No Program -1.02 -1.78 -3.25 -0.57 -0.85 -5.29 -6.13 1.89
Southeastern States (%)
Baseline 1.09 1.24 -0.23 0.62 -0.52 -0.57 -0.7 0.91
Marketing Loan 1.1 1.8 -0.8 0.92 0.3 0.4 -0.34 1.15
No Program 1.1 -2.05 -2.31 -0.46 -1.41 -1.64 -1.4 0.77
Northeastern States (%)
Baseline 0.64 1.54 2.78 0.18 -1.94 2.14 4.93 5.12
Marketing Loan 0.72 2.66 -0.21 -2.08 2.71 4.8 1.59 0.83
No Program 0.63 -1.75 -1.03 2.26 0.25 -0.94 1.04 6.51
Great Lakes States (%)
Baseline 0.64 1.54 2.78 0.18 -1.94 2.14 4.93 5.12
Marketing Loan 0.72 2.66 -0.21 -2.08 2.71 4.8 1.59 0.83
No Program 0.63 -1.75 -1.03 2.26 0.25 -0.94 1.04 6.51
Northern Great Plains (%)
Baseline 0.43 1.34 5.73 1.78 -1.31 2.28 1.34 -2.23
Marketing Loan 0.41 2.04 3.57 1.35 0.29 -0.51 -0.44 -2.78
No Program 0.39 -5.29 -1.5 0.54 -2.46 -1.62 -0.22 0.82
Texas (%)
Baseline 0.15 -0.36 7.98 -1.16 -7.61 -3.52 -2.8 5.96
Marketing Loan 0.18 1.88 5.3 -1.84 -2.44 -4.09 -6.91 2.39
No Program 0.12 -7.51 3.9 1.95 -6.43 -9.65 -7.75 7.18
___________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University
of Missouri-Columbia and Iowa State University.