Table 4.  Probability that Deficiency Payment Rates Under the Senate Farm
          Bill Provisions will Equal the Payment Caps, 1996-2002*.
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                                                Years
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Crops        1996     1997     1998     1999     2000     2001     2002
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                                    (PERCENT)

Wheat          26       38       25       22       67       69       65

Corn           36       49       29       45       37       33       20

Sorghum        20       36       22       32       18       24       15

Barley         45       43       44       42       39       39       40

Cotton         43       46       34       62       55       58       48

Rice           23       25       53       62       63       81       69
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* Probabilities are based on historical variability for crop prices and
  average annual prices in the FAPRI projections of prices for the Senate
  provisions.