Table 3. Comparison of Rates of Change in Input Costs, Interest Rates, and land Inflation
Rates Under the Baseline and the Alternative Interest Rate Scenarios.
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
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Annual Rate of Change for Input Prices Paid
Seed Prices (%)
Baseline 1.12 -0.08 1.41 2.16 1.99 2.12
50 Point Increase 1.12 -0.09 1.40 2.15 1.98 2.11
100 Point Increase 1.11 -0.10 1.38 2.13 1.96 2.09
Fertilizer Prices (%)
Baseline -1.76 -0.63 1.55 1.69 1.75 1.74
50 Point Increase -1.76 -0.65 1.52 1.66 1.71 1.71
100 Point Increase -1.77 -0.66 1.49 1.63 1.68 1.68
Chemical Prices (%)
Baseline 1.45 -0.18 0.68 1.13 2.10 2.29
50 Point Increase 1.43 -0.23 0.61 1.06 2.03 2.22
100 Point Increase 1.42 -0.27 0.55 1.00 1.96 2.15
Machinery Prices (%)
Baseline -0.25 -0.11 0.45 0.66 1.02 0.64
50 Point Increase 1.47 -0.16 0.45 0.63 0.99 0.63
100 Point Increase 3.22 -0.21 0.44 0.60 0.97 0.61
Fuel and Lube Prices (%)
Baseline -4.23 -1.77 3.25 3.52 3.59 3.52
50 Point Increase -4.25 -1.81 3.18 3.45 3.52 3.45
100 Point Increase -4.26 -1.85 3.12 3.38 3.45 3.39
Labor (%)
Baseline 1.63 1.55 1.62 1.93 2.24 2.02
50 Point Increase 1.59 1.55 1.55 1.88 2.14 1.95
100 Point Increase 1.57 1.51 1.49 1.81 2.08 1.89
Other Input Prices (%)
Baseline 0.47 1.37 2.20 2.28 2.57 2.58
50 Point Increase 0.46 1.33 2.14 2.21 2.50 2.52
100 Point Increase 0.44 1.29 2.08 2.14 2.44 2.46
Non-Feed Dairy Costs (%)
Baseline 0.28 2.08 2.23 2.36 2.71 2.42
50 Point Increase 0.19 2.09 2.19 2.23 2.62 2.44
100 Point Increase 0.16 2.05 2.14 2.19 2.58 2.40
Non-Feed Beef Costs (%)
Baseline -0.15 0.36 1.02 1.24 1.48 1.30
50 Point Increase -0.17 0.34 0.99 1.21 1.40 1.22
100 Point Increase -0.18 0.31 0.94 1.15 1.35 1.17
Non-Feed Hog Costs (%)
Baseline -1.86 5.01 7.34 0.99 1.53 2.97
50 Point Increase -1.87 5.00 7.26 0.88 1.39 2.87
100 Point Increase -1.88 4.98 7.18 0.77 1.26 2.77
Consumer Price Index
Baseline 161.06 165.52 170.22 175.01 179.95 184.97
50 Point Increase 161.01 165.37 169.94 174.59 179.36 184.21
100 Point Increase 160.96 165.23 169.68 174.17 178.78 183.46
Annual Interest Rates
Long-Term (%)
Baseline 7.14 7.17 7.27 7.16 7.07 7.12
50 Point Increase 7.34 7.49 7.65 7.57 7.49 7.55
100 Point Increase 7.55 7.81 8.04 7.98 7.91 7.99
Intermediate-Term (%)
Baseline 8.02 7.75 7.75 7.76 7.69 7.46
50 Point Increase 8.23 8.07 8.16 8.22 8.19 7.96
100 Point Increase 8.44 8.40 8.57 8.68 8.68 8.45
Savings Account (%)
Baseline 4.02 3.75 3.75 3.76 3.69 3.46
50 Point Increase 4.12 3.95 3.95 4.16 4.09 3.96
100 Point Increase 4.22 4.15 4.35 4.46 4.49 4.36
Annual Rate of Change for U.S. Land Prices (%)
Baseline 5.02 4.90 5.43 3.12 2.42 1.17
50 Point Increase 5.00 4.59 5.05 2.76 2.13 0.94
100 Point Increase 4.99 4.28 4.66 2.40 1.84 0.70
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*Baseline refers to the projected prices for the January 1997 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline.
50 and 100 Point Increases refer to the projected prices for the 50 and 100 point Increase in
the 90 Day Treasury Bi
Source: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University
of Missouri-Columbia and Iowa State University.